Rates & Fed · August 28, 2026 · 1 min read

Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech Sends Rate-Hike Odds and Yields Higher

Published August 28, 2026

Reviewed by Econ Data Tools editorial QC

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish inflation message at his first Jackson Hole keynote pushed September rate-hike odds up and short-term Treasury yields to a one-month high.

**Warsh calls inflation "too high," cites 3.4% CPI**: In his first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh said "inflation is running above our 2% target," pointing to CPI at 3.4% and the Fed's preferred PCE gauge at 3.7% for the year through July. He stopped short of committing to a September hike, saying he prefers "a quieter Fed" that is "more purposeful in its communications." **September hike odds jump to 46%, 2-year yield hits 4.29%**: Futures-implied odds of a September rate increase rose to 46% from 35% on Thursday, per CME data. The 2-year Treasury yield climbed 6.6 basis points to a one-month high of 4.29%, the 30-year fell 3 basis points to 5.16%, and the dollar index gained 0.4% to 99.55. The S&P 500 held roughly flat, up 0.20% to 7,747, while gold fell 1.63% to $4,535.27/oz.

Follow the data

Relevant directory links appear to be unassigned.

Sources

Related News

U.S. Consumer Price Index Increases 0.4% in August 2026 as Energy Costs Accelerate

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August 2026, up from 0.1 percent in July. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index grew 3.4 percent before seasonal adjustment, remaining unchanged from the annual pace recorded in July. Gasoline prices accounted for more than one-third of the monthly gain, rising 3.9 percent. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3 percent month-over-month and 2.4 percent on a 12-month basis.

U.S. Consumer Price Index Rises 0.4% in August as Gasoline Prices Accelerate Inflation

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased by 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August 2026, accelerating from a 0.1 percent gain in July. On an unadjusted basis, the headline all-items index rose 3.4 percent over the 12 months ending August, matching the annual pace recorded in the prior month. The monthly increase was primarily driven by energy costs, as gasoline prices jumped 3.9 percent and accounted for over one-third of the headline monthly increase. Meanwhile, core CPI—which excludes food and energy components—rose 0.3 percent month-over-month and 2.4 percent year-over-year, reflecting modest upward pressure in shelter and transportation services.

U.S. Consumer Price Index Rose 0.4 Percent in August 2026 as Energy Costs Rebounded

The U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.4 percent month-over-month in August 2026 on a seasonally adjusted basis, driven significantly by a 3.9 percent surge in gasoline prices, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the 12 months ending August 2026, total CPI rose 3.4 percent unadjusted, matching the annual pace recorded in July. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3 percent for the month and 2.4 percent year-over-year.