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Rates & Fed · August 22, 2026 · 1 min read

Warsh Heads Into His First Jackson Hole as Fed Chair Amid Rising Rate-Hike Odds

By Econ Data Tools Editorial Team

Published August 22, 2026

Reviewed by Econ Data Tools Editorial Team

Futures markets now price roughly a 1-in-3 chance of a September rate hike as Kevin Warsh prepares his debut Jackson Hole speech.

**Rate-hike odds are back on the table.** The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in July on a 9-3 vote, with three dissenters pushing for an immediate hike. Futures markets now price roughly a 1-in-3 (33%) chance of a September *hike* — a striking reversal from earlier cut talk, driven by energy-linked inflation and questions about the Fed's inflation-fighting resolve. **Warsh is deliberately giving fewer signals.** Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole symposium (Aug. 27-29) on Friday morning. He has declined to submit projections to the Fed's "dot plot" — the first chair to do so since 2012 — leaving investors to parse his tone on inflation, the dual mandate, and Fed independence from Treasury's debt-management moves.

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